Regional brain atrophy rate predicts future cognitive decline: 6-year longitudinal MR imaging study of normal aging.

TitleRegional brain atrophy rate predicts future cognitive decline: 6-year longitudinal MR imaging study of normal aging.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2003
AuthorsRusinek H, de Santi S, Frid D, Tsui W-H, Tarshish CY, Convit A, de Leon MJ
JournalRadiology
Volume229
Issue3
Pagination691-6
Date Published2003 Dec
ISSN0033-8419
KeywordsAged, Atrophy, Cognition Disorders, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Memory Disorders, Neuropsychological Tests, Sensitivity and Specificity, Temporal Lobe
Abstract

PURPOSE: To determine if medial temporal lobe (MTL) atrophy rate, assessed by using an automated procedure over the initial time interval of a 6-year, three-time-point longitudinal study, is predictive of future memory decline.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Healthy elderly subjects (age, >60 years) were administered a comprehensive battery of neuropsychometric tests and underwent magnetic resonance (MR) imaging at baseline and two or more follow-up examinations. The rate of brain atrophy between the baseline and first follow-up examinations was assessed by using an automated procedure that included spatial coregistration of the two images and regional brain boundary shift analysis. At final observation, the 45 subjects were separated into a group of those who did and a group of those who did not show objective evidence of cognitive decline. A forward stepwise logistic regression model was used to identify variables that predicted decline.

RESULTS: Thirty-two subjects remained healthy, and 13 showed cognitive decline. Among subjects who showed cognitive decline, six declined after the second observation. MTL atrophy rate, through its interactions with sex and age, was the most significant predictor of decline. The overall accuracy of prediction was 89% (in 40 of 45 subjects), with 91% specificity (in 29 of 32 subjects) and 85% sensitivity (in 11 of 13 subjects).

CONCLUSION: Among healthy elderly individuals, increased MTL atrophy rate appears to be predictive of future memory decline.

DOI10.1148/radiol.2293021299
Alternate JournalRadiology
PubMed ID14657306
Grant ListAG03051 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
AG08051 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
AG21201 / AG / NIA NIH HHS / United States
Related Institute: 
Brain Health Imaging Institute (BHII)

Weill Cornell Medicine
Department of Radiology
525 East 68th Street New York, NY 10065